Understanding Opportunity Cost
When Investing In Property
By Alan
Forsyth
While most
investors have got involved in property investing because they understand the
opportunities to make money through leverage and capital growth or high yields,
I still see and hear of many who do not fully understand opportunity cost.
Remember anyone
that gets into property is usually in it to generate money or income - how many
deals/properties you own is insignificant.
So what does
opportunity cost mean?
Well according
to the encyclopedia, "Opportunity cost is a term used in economics, to
mean the cost of something in terms of an opportunity foregone (and the
benefits that could be received from that opportunity), or the most valuable
foregone alternative. For example, if a city decides to build a hospital on
vacant land that it owns, the opportunity cost is some other thing that might have
been done with the land and construction funds instead. In building the
hospital, the city has forgone the opportunity to build a sporting center on
that land, or a parking lot, or the ability to sell the land to reduce the
city's debt, and so on."
So in property
investing terms, if an investor decides to invest £50k in a property in for
example Wales, the opportunity cost would be what he could have made by
investing in Spain, Ireland or Dubai. Or similarly if an investor decides to
keep equity of 50k in a property, the opportunity cost is what he/she could
alternatively have invested this money in and the resultant value.
Now again this
will depend on your specific strategy - and many people are not too concerned
about opportunity cost, they are just keen to buy 1-2 properties that can hold
onto for 15-25 years to use as a pension. That is fine if that is your strategy
- but for me that is too broad a strategy, carries risks and is not maximising
the opportunities available.
For me I have
always had a philosophy, rightly or wrongly, that I should always be working my
money hard. What does this mean? Well as soon as I feel my money has made a
significant return and the returns are likely to drop off, compared to other
possibilities, then I will look at realising my profits and investing elsewhere
ie when I feel the opportunity elsewhere is greater than the current
opportunity.
The great thing
with property is this does not necessarily mean selling, as you can refinance,
and invest money elsewhere.
This is no
different to any other type of investing, such as buying stocks and shares -
you make/lose your money depending on what price you paid, and what price you
sold at - although clearly with property is good opportunity to earn a regular
income as well - if hold onto for 15-25 years you should make money, but most
likely will be a few scares along the way!
To be a
successful investor, must know when to enter the market, and leave the market.
And the people that do best buy low, and sell high!
I'll give an example
- while buying off plan has now got a bit of stick in the UK - I have done it
successfully over the last few years - but the key is having a clear strategy.
For example, by
doing all my due diligence I have managed to buy property at the right price in
right location, but then sold on within a year of completion as I felt that was
the period I would see the maximum returns in - and opportunities would be
greater elsewhere over the next 3 years.
So to go
through the numbers, I have just sold one that I bought off plan last year 12
months before completion. I bought at a price that was already £10k below
market value based on my research in an area that had little buy to let
competition. This was secured with only a £5k deposit. On completion, I put another
£28k into deposit - so tied up £33k of my own money. There was no stamp duty in
this area.
I then put on
market on completion, now even with things slowing down in the area, I have
just sold it for a £23k profit. So I tied up £5k for 1 year, and a further £28k
for 6 months, to get back £56k.
Why did I sell?
Did I consider refinancing?
My first choice
would have been to refinance and let out, but the rental would not have stacked
up. So while the rental would have stacked up at the price I paid for the property,
I would have had 56k in equity sat not doing very much for me. So as I do not
forecast huge capital growth in the area over the next 3-5 years, and the yield
was not attractive enough for me it was best for me to release this equity and
find another investment - ie I felt there were better opportunities for me to
spend my £56,000 on, to generate more money.
Now clearly
when are looking into the future is element of risk and speculation and are no
definite answers - so you are having to forecast as well as you can with the
data currently available ie how you forecast interest rates, buying/selling
costs, supply and demand, employment, the overall economy and market sentiment
over the next time period in the markets/regions you are investing/looking to
invest in.
Although
opportunity cost can be hard to quantify, its effect is universal and very real
on the individual level. The principle behind the economic concept of opportunity
cost applies to all decisions, not just economic ones, for example when Steven
Gerrard decided to stay with Liverpool last summer, his home club and where he
is captain, the opportunity cost was what he could have achieved if he had
moved to Chelsea. It will be interesting to see what he decides this summer- he
may now feel the opportunity cost is too great to turn down.
Hope this makes
sense, and remember to consider opportunity cost when next making an investment
decision.
Alan Forsyth
writes for http://www.propertysecrets.net which provides
free property articles provided by a host of contributors around the UK and
Overseas giving insightful information on the property markets the contributors
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